Global Box Office Predicted to Fall in 2024 Following Hollywood Strikes

Cynthia Littleton Business Editor From Hollywood strikes to the ascent of AI to sinking stock prices, 2023 was a topsy-turvy year for media and entertainment. Cynthia Littleton and Andrew Wallenstein, hosts of Variety podcast “Strictly Business,” discuss the highs and lows of the past year on the latest episode.

Global box office is estimated to have reached $33.9B for 2023, a 30.5% gain on 2022, according to Gower Street Analytics. While this represents continuing worldwide recovery, the figure remains 15% behind the average of the last three pre-pandemic years (2017-2019). Gower Street also recently estimated that, due in part to this year’s strike-impacted release calendar, 2024 is projected to drop to $31.5 billion, which, given today’s revised estimate for last year, would come in at 7% below 2023. 

Patrick Frater Asia Bureau Chief Hong Kong saw “A Guilty Conscience” become the highest-grossing film of all time at its local box office. But the wider cinema market in Hong Kong remained stuck far below pre-pandemic levels. Data from Hong Kong Box Office Limited, a joint venture between Motion Picture Industry Association (MPIA) and the Hong Kong Theatres Association, showed annual cinema revenue of HK$1.43 billion ($184 million) in 2023. That was a 25% improvement on 2022, when the industry was battered by on-off closures due to government COVID-control measures, and managed only HK$1.14 billion ($146 million).

Patrick Frater Asia Bureau Chief Chinese-produced movies took all of the top ten chart places at the China box office as theatrical revenues in 2023 rebounded strongly. Gross revenues reached an annual total of RMB54.9 billion or $7.73 billion. That was an 83% improvement on the previous year, according to data from China Film Administration, but still 14.5% adrift of 2019, the last pre-COVID year, when grosses hit RMB64.3 billion.

Patrick Frater Asia Bureau Chief A strong December for local films helped make up for an otherwise miserable 2023 at the South Korean box office – previously the fifth largest cinema territory worldwide. And while theatrical markets in other major territories have recovered to reach at or near pre-pandemic levels, Korea finished 44% below 2019. Data from the Korean Film Council’s Kobis tracking service showed annual gross revenues of KRW1.261 trillion ($964 million at Jan 2024 rates of exchange) in 2023. That represented a gain of 9% on 2022, but it was far below the KRW1.91 trillion ($1.46 billion) recorded in 2019, the last pre-COVID year. The bleak trend was mirrored in terms of attendance or ticket sales, which remains the country’s preferred performance measure.

Elsa Keslassy International Correspondent The French box office jumped 19% in 2023 with an estimated €1.3 billion ($1.4 billion) grossed from 181.2 million tickets, according to Comscore France. Unlike in 2022, when the top 10 was exclusively dominated by U.S.

MONDAY AM writethru: Yes, Virginia, there is a Santa Claus, and he’s delivering the motion picture industry a $9 billion-plus year at the domestic box office, a feat many thought was unimaginable with the lack of a mega-tentpole over the holiday, coupled by a Q4 impacted by the double strikes. The numbers were compiled from Comscore data and Deadline calculations. Comscore called 2023 at $9.03 billion yesterday.

Ridley Scott’s Napoleon has crossed the $200M mark globally, getting to the milestone with Tuesday’s numbers included. The worldwide tally for the biographical epic is $200.7M, of which $141.1M is from the international box office. Through yesterday, the domestic cume is $59.6M.

according to Variety. That’s less than the $519 million worldwide earnings from the first “Ant-Man” film in 2015 and the $623 million the second installment earned in 2018 (not adjusted for inflation).

Patrick Frater Asia Bureau Chief It seems Hollywood’s “sequel-itis” has reached China’s box office too. Despite the country’s dramatic overnight removal of COVID restrictions in December 2022 and film imports quickly restarting with the triumphant debut of “Avatar: The Way of Water,” Hollywood’s new normal in the Middle Kingdom bears little resemblance to its pre-pandemic status. During the three-year disruption of 2020-22, caused by the pandemic and soured U.S.-China diplomatic relations, few Hollywood films — and no Marvel titles — made their way onto Chinese screens. But if Hollywood studios read the $240 million-grossing “Avatar 2” feeding frenzy as a sign that pent-up Chinese demand for their sequels and superheroes slate might continue throughout 2023, they were sorely disappointed. In the world’s second-largest box office territory, with a cume to date of $7.3 billion, the market share for all imported films in China has crashed, standing at less than 15% at the beginning of December. Hollywood films’ share is just 12%, consultancy Artisan Gateway calculates. This month, “Napoleon” and “Wonka” have continued the trend of dismal flops, with $5 million and $3 million opening weekends, respectively. The slump is particularly disappointing given that the Chinese authorities that carefully control the film industry have this year made several moves designed to put Hollywood releasing back on the rails.

Gower Street Analytics has come up with an early estimate for 2024 global box office, projecting a roughly 5% downturn versus 2023 to $31.5B (Gower currently is pegging 2023 at $33.4B). This marks the first post-pandemic decrease in the London-based firm’s annual forecast. Should the figure hold, it would put the year -20% against the average of the last three pre-pandemic years (2017-2019). 

Timothée Chalamet‘s Wonka has topped the global box office.The musical prequel directed by Paul King pulled in a whopping $92.6million (£73.1million) over the weekend, topping the box office in 60 of its 77 international markets, according to Screen Daily. Its worldwide total currently stands at $150million (£118.4million).In the US, it made its debut pulling in $39million (£30.8million) over the weekend to top the box office and enjoyed strong openings in France at $5.1million (£4million) and Australia $4million (£3.2million).The UK/Ireland leads the international pack with $23.2million (£18.3million) after 10 days, ahead of Mexico with $11.2million (£8.3million).

Patrick Frater Asia Bureau Chief Chinese-made crime drama, “Endless Journey” opened on top of the mainland China box office on a weekend with three new releases in the top five. The Wanda Pictures and Alibaba title earned $20.5 million (RMB146 million) between Friday and Sunday, its official opening weekend, according to data from consultancy Artisan Gateway. Together with previews from the week earlier, it ended the weekend with a cumulative total of $34.5 million (RMB245 million).

Patrick Frater Asia Bureau Chief Fact-based action drama “12.12: The Day” won a fourth weekend at the South Korea box office and became the second highest grossing film of the year. The political thriller incurred a steep week-on-week drop in takings, managing only $5.89 million in its fourth weekend, compared with $11.4 million in its third. But it still hogged a 72% market share, according to data from Kobis, the tracking service operated by the Korean Film Council (Kofic). After releasing on Nov.

Patrick Frater Asia Bureau Chief The first and second seasons of the hit thriller series “The Tourist,” starring Jamie Dornan and Danielle Macdonald, will shift to Netflix starting next February. The first season originally saw Warner Bros. Discovery’s Max as a co-producer and local streaming partner.

Patrick Frater Asia Bureau Chief Australian streamer Stan has acquired rights to both seasons, totaling 20 episodes, of the Malaysian adaptation of Scandinavian crime series “The Bridge.” The agreement, brokered by Lyle Bettson-Barker, SVP Australia and New Zealand from Banijay Rights, represents the first time that Stan has acquired a Malaysian drama series. The Asian version of “The Bridge” was initially commissioned by Viu and HBO Asia in 2018, after Double Vision, part of the Vision New Media group, introduced Viu to the format. It broadcast to across 23 territories in the combined footprints of Viu and HBO Asia and was also shown on Viu in South Africa.The title has garnered more than 20 regional awards and nominations across its two seasons, making it the most awarded drama in Malaysian history. Season one faithfully follows the original show, and sees a dead body found on the border between Malaysia and Singapore, necessitating an investigator from each country to work together to solve the crime.

Patrick Frater Asia Bureau Chief Two Hollywood films “Wonka” and “Migration” opened in Chinese cinemas over the latest weekend. But neither did enough business to appear among the box office top five. Instead, the weekend crown went to “The Invisible Guest,” a Chinese remake of the 2016 Spanish mystery thriller about a woman who must work with a police officer to clear her name after her lover is found dead in a locked room. It earned a modest $12.6 million (RMB89.6 million), according to data from consultancy Artisan Gateway.

Patrick Frater Asia Bureau Chief Fact-based political thriller “12.12: The Day” dominated the Korean box office for the third successive weekend and advanced its takings haul beyond $50 million. It was far ahead of “Napoleon,” which opened a disappointing third. The Kim Sung-soo-directed picture earned $11.4 million between Friday and Sunday, accounting for 75.8% of nationwide weekend cinema revenues, according to data from Kobis, the tracking service operated by the Korean Film Council (Kofic). It has held up particularly strongly and dropped by only 12% in its third weekend.

Dick Clark’s New Year’s Rockin’ Eve with Ryan Seacrest 2024 is just around the corner!

Patrick Frater Asia Bureau Chief Hollywood’s role in Asian TV has changed in the streaming era and age of hyper-local content. A top-down sales and distribution position has eased into one of co-production, co-financing and acquisition. A high-powered array of western executives offered experienced views and discussed their current positions at a panel session Thursday within the Asia Television Forum & Market in Singapore. “We want to be an additive partner on shows that cannot be created locally, said Georgina Gonzalez, director of scripted series and global series at Universal Int’l Studios, NBCU.