‘Avatar: The Way Of Water’ Projected To Open To $150M-$175M+ At U.S. Box Office

Ahead of the rollout of James Cameron’s Avatar: The Way of Water in China this week, the original Avatar is getting a surprise rerelease in a limited promotional run from tomorrow locally — and will include an exclusive Easter egg for local audiences. The remastered 4K/HDR version is so far expected in up to 80 cinemas – China has steadily been opening theaters as zero-Covid restrictions have eased in the past week. 

On the final weekend before Avatar: The Way of Water dominates screens globally, Disney/Marvel’s Black Panther: Wakanda Forever continued to lead the worldwide and international box office. The fifth session for the sequel added $11.8M in 50 overseas markets, lifting the offshore cume to $358M and global to $767.8M.

Darren Aronofsky’s The Whale from A24 swam to the biggest limited opening of the year in NY and LA this weekend, beating the per screen record set by in late spring by the indie distributor’s Everything, Everywhere All At Once.

What happens when there’s no wide theatrical releases and it’s the holiday season as we emerge from the pandemic? Why, you get the second-lowest box office weekend of the year at an estimated $37.2M. We’ll see if Saturday night business is so bad that that this weekend becomes the lowest of 2022, unseating that of Jan. 28-30, when all movies grossed $34.87M, per Comscore.

Universal and 87North’s action horror pic Violent Night is off to a healthy start with $1.1M previews last night. Hopefully this movie will give the weekend box office a pulse and overperform which is typically a slow period post Thanksgiving, and even worse given the fact that the marketplace is still in rebuild.

Before Disney’s 20th Century Studios’ Avatar: The Way of Water floods the box office with a potential $200M opening on Dec.16, Universal might have a surprise this weekend in the 87North holiday action movie Violent Night, starring David Harbour. Universal is hoping for $10M, maybe $12M on the Tommy Wirkola-directed movie for a second place take. However, rivals are truly excited by it, thinking it could do much more.

Even with one fewer show on the Broadway boards, and overall attendance at the 33 productions down a smidge from the previous week, Broadway box office was up 22% during Thanksgiving week, scoring a plump $37,475,773 due to plumper holiday ticket prices.

In its third weekend, Disney/Marvel’s Black Panther: Wakanda Forever continued to reign at the global and international box office. With a $32.1M offshore frame (-53%), the sequel has an overseas total of $308M for $675.6M worldwide through Sunday.

Sideshow/Janus Films EO held well in week two, grossing $23,217 for the five-day holiday frame ($11,609 per screen) and $16,900 for the three-day weekend ($8,450 per screen). The new cume is $50.7k in a crowded arthouse market, a strong showing for the film starring a melancholic gray donkey. It expands to LA next week opening at Laemmle Royal, Alamo Drafthouse DTLA, Los Feliz 3, and Santa Barbara’s Riviera Theater at SBIFF. Director Jerzy Skolimowski will be on hand for Q&As all weekend.

Over the 5-day Thanksgiving stretch, Netflix’s one week sneak preview of Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery buried all new and old major studio adult counterprogramming with an estimated $13.3M over 5-days for what is projected to be a $15M first week by Tuesday.

As expected, China has given a theatrical release to James Cameron’s Avatar: The Way of Water. This is a big deal given the fact that China sidelined, during the pandemic, many Hollywood blockbuster films, specifically Disney-Marvel movies. However, the first Avatar was a big grosser in China. The sequel to the biggest-grossing movie of all time will hit China day and date on December 16.

Call it a holiday tradition as common as sweet potatoes on the Thanksgiving table, but Disney is going to rule the five-day holiday stretch again after wins in 2016 (Moana), 2017 (Coco), 2018 (Ralph Breaks the Internet), 2019 (Frozen 2) and last year (Encanto), as Black Panther: Wakanda Forever‘s third weekend looks to do $40M over Wednesday-Sunday and Disney Animation’s Strange World hopes to squeeze out $30M+. All of this occurs as Bob Iger is re-installed as the CEO of Disney and the studio’s distribution czar Kareem Daniel exits.

Luca Guadagnino’s Timothée Chalamet-starring, edgy cannibal road trip romance Bones And All pulled in young demos (79% in the 18-34 rage) and women (54%-46% female) for an opening weekend gross of $120k, or $23.9k per screen average in five theaters. That’s respectable and in line with distributor UAR expectations although below recent debuts including Banshees of Inisherin and Tár last month and The Fabelmans last week, where PSAs all cracked $40k.

“Bones and All” sees Guadagnino reunite with his “Call Me By Your Name” star Timothee Chalamet, who stars alongside newcomer Taylor Russell as a pair of cannibals who fall in love and embark on a tragic road trip across America. The film won Best Director and Best Newcomer honors at Venice and has received praise from critics with an 86% Rotten Tomatoes score, though its likely to remain a niche title as one would expect for a film with such a grisly taboo topic.

Refresh for latest…: In its sophomore frame, Disney/Marvel’s Black Panther: Wakanda Forever sent its worldwide cume well past the $500M mark, with an estimated $546.3M through Sunday.  The split is $288M domestic and $258.3M from the international box office.

When a film as heavily promoted and well-regarded as Universal’s She Said gets body-slammed at the box office, it’s wise to pay attention.

When approaching features like those in his Avatar franchise and the fantastical worlds they depict, filmmaker James Cameron looks for “true, universal human experience” to ground the narrative.