Could Lily Gladstone’s Historic SAG Win Get Her Over the Finish Line, and Will ‘Oppenheimer’ Tie the ‘West Side Story’ Oscar Record?
25.02.2024 - 21:07
/ variety.com
Clayton Davis Senior Awards Editor Just 30 minutes after final voting for the Screen Actors Guild Awards wrapped up, I made a last-minute switch in my best actress prediction — from Lily Gladstone in “Killers of the Flower Moon” to Emma Stone in “Poor Things.” Let this be a lesson: Second-guessing yourself is seldom a good idea. Lily Gladstone made history as the first Native American and Indigenous person to clinch an individual SAG Award for her portrayal of Mollie Burkhart, an Osage woman, in Martin Scorsese’s gripping crime saga.
With a lead actress (drama) Golden Globe and a SAG Award now under her belt, Gladstone’s award-season momentum continues to be formidable. Historically, only seven performers have failed to win the Oscar after winning the unique combination of Globe and SAG: Given these odds, Gladstone appears to have a slight edge over her main rival.
This season, Gladstone and Stone have gone head-to-head twice, each securing a victory — Stone at the Critics Choice Awards and Gladstone at the SAG Awards. It’s interesting to note that CCA don’t include any AMPAS voters, whereas SAG-AFTRA does, making the SAG Awards a potentially more accurate predictor.
Read Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Oscars predictions in all categories. On the other hand, the best actor category seems more straightforward now, with Cillian Murphy‘s portrayal of the father of the atomic bomb in “Oppenheimer” besting Paul Giamatti’s heartwarming turn in “The Holdovers.” Murphy, with Golden Globe, BAFTA, and SAG prizes, is well-positioned for his first Oscar win.
Historical trends favor actors who play real-life figures, further boosting Murphy’s chances. The supporting actress category is nearly decided, with Da’Vine Joy
.