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Should Disney Spin Off ESPN? Wall Street Analysts Remain Split On Sports Strategy
20.12.2022 - 23:19 / deadline.com
The fate of ESPN, Disney’s prize asset and a reliable generator of cash flow even in uncertain times, remains the subject of vigorous debate in industry and finance circles.
Wells Fargo media analyst Steven Cahall weighed in on the side of spinning off the sports property, going as far as predicting the move will start to take effect by this time next year.
The company “will begin the spin-off process for ESPN & ABC, including launching ESPN in streaming à la carte,” Cahall wrote in a note to clients. “Cost rationalization and balance sheet options are critical to reaching this outcome. The result is a better-off remaining” entity.
Other analysts have taken the opposite view. Michael Nathanson of MoffettNathanson, a longtime Disney bull, issued a report about the outlook for the company earlier this month titled, almost plaintively, “What Now?” While he rates the return of CEO Bob Iger a net positive, he said Iger faces many vexing challenges, including how to manage ESPN through a period of ongoing linear decline. Spinning off sports, especially given the burdensome costs of rights fees, doesn’t pencil out in Nathanson’s view. “While the market might pine for an ESPN spin,” he wrote, “we don’t think the math is a slam dunk for the risks involved. Rather, the preferred path forward is to re-imagine all of Disney’s DTC assets starting with Disney+ Hotstar, Hulu Live and Disney+’s pivot to general entertainment.”
In an SEC filing last month, Disney said ESPN shed another 2 million subscribers to finish fiscal 2022 with about 74 million. That level is more than 25% below its peak just north of 100 million in 2011. As the lucrative pay-TV universe for ESPN has shrunk, costs have also risen, with big decisions looming on
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