Oscar Voting Closes: Seven Questions and Seven Anonymous Ballots Point to Shockers Brewing
08.03.2023 - 04:59
/ variety.com
Clayton Davis Senior Awards Editor Final Oscar voting has now ended for the upcoming 95th ceremony. Speaking with dozens of voters over the past few days, it’s nearly impossible to gauge the outcomes based on over 9,600 eligible voting members, who all have eclectic tastes and no apparent rhyme or reason for selecting specific films and performances. There are quite a few categories that are seemingly open for a surprise. Here are seven questions gathered from observations from discussions with voters and seven anonymous ballots from the AMPAS members before the voting deadline.
It should be noted that these are my observations and trends, not my official final predictions. How many Oscars are “too much” for “Everything Everywhere All at Once?”
A24’s multiverse comedy has cleaned up with the major guilds, winning DGA, PGA, SAG and WGA, the first film to do so since “Argo” (2012). In addition, no film has lost the best picture after winning all four. However, with 11 nominations, there’s an active debate regarding how many categories it can win, ranging from as low as three to upwards of eight. In this new era of preferential ballots, international and younger Academy members have shown to exercise a “spread the love” mentality, resisting the urge to go down the line for a movie in every category it’s nominated. This is demonstrated by only two best picture winners since 2009 taking home five or more statuettes. A helpful tool I’ve used is “traveling down the ballot” — reviewing the order in which an Academy member vote in the categories. The order is: best picture, actor, supporting actor, actress, supporting actress, animated feature, cinematography, costume design, directing, documentary feature, documentary short,
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