‘Little Mermaid’ Swimming Against Strong Tides At Overseas Box Office, Leaving Break-even In Question

Patrick Frater Asia Bureau Chief Warner Bros.’s “The Flash” and Disney/Pixar’s “Elemental” made theatrical debuts in China that were in line with their soft starts in North America and other international territories. “The Flash” captured the top spot in China with a $13.4 million (RMB94.8 million) opening weekend ($13.8 million including previews), according to data from consultancy Artisan Gateway. It deposed “Transformers: Rise of the Beasts” which opened a week earlier and which slipped to second place in its sophomore frame. “Transformers” took a 69% fall and recorded $12.4 million between Friday and Sunday in China. That produces a $61.7 million cumulative after ten days in Chinese theaters.

Rebecca Rubin Film and Media Reporter After struggling at the domestic box office, this weekend’s two major releases — the Warner Bros. superhero adaptation “The Flash” and Disney’s Pixar adventure “Elemental” — failed to catch fire with international audiences. “The Flash” pulled in $75 million in its international box office debut, which doesn’t sound all that bad… except when considering the movie is available in 78 overseas markets. That means it failed to hit $1 million in the vast majority of the territories in play. China led the way with a lackluster $13.8 million, followed by Mexico with $9.4 million, the United Kingdom with $5.3 million, Korea with $3.7 million and Brazil with $3.5 million.

Refresh for latest…: Warner Bros/DC’s The Flash sped into 78 overseas markets this weekend, grossing $75M, below the $85M-$95M we saw coming into the frame. With domestic’s slow-crawl three-day included, that makes for a $139M global opening. This is lower than projections, with general audiences not rushing out to see the deeper universe pic.

Ben Croll The walls of Barcelona’s international convention center might soon rattle once the 4,000 European exhibitors, suppliers and service providers in town for the CineEurope trade show breathe out a collective sigh of relief. At the root of such succor are Europe’s more than encouraging box-office admissions, which saw a marked uptick in late 2022 and have continued to rise into the new year. “I think this edition will be very much about celebrating because 2022 was a much better year than 2021,” says Laura Houlgatte, CEO of the Intl. Union of Cinemas (UNIC), which tends to the needs of cinema trade associations and exhibitors across the old continent. “[What’s more] the numbers for the first quarter of 2023 have left everyone in a very good mood.”

Rebecca Rubin Film and Media Reporter “The Flash,” a superhero adventure starring Ezra Miller, emerged victorious over Pixar’s “Elemental” in a battle of the box office lightweights. This weekend’s two new releases were once expected to ignite the summer box office but instead entirely missed the mark, as “The Flash” stumbled with $55 million and “Elemental” collected just $29.5 million in their respective debuts. Both of those films fell short of already-low expectations. And worse, they were pricy endeavors, costing $200 million to make and roughly $100 million to market, so they are shaping up to be huge disappointments in their theatrical runs. In the lead-up to “The Flash,” executives at Warner Bros. worked hard to convince the public that the film is “one of the greatest superhero movies ever made.” Directed by Andy Muschietti, the story picks up as Miller’s Barry Allen a.k.a The Flash travels back in time to prevent his mother’s murder and inadvertently cracks open the DC multiverse. (Cameos abound!) But its tepid “B” CinemaScore from opening weekend crowds suggests that the moviegoing masses didn’t entirely agree with the lavish praise bestowed on the film by the people who made it. Without positive audience scores or strong word-of-mouth, “The Flash” will struggle to rebound in the coming weeks, especially as summer season heats up with the release of “Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny” on June 30, “Mission: Impossible 7” on July 12 and Christopher Nolan’s “Oppenheimer” on July 21.

After a year-plus of tabloid headlines about its star Ezra Miller, Warner Bros./DC’s Covid-delayed $200M Justice League standalone superhero movie The Flash finally arrives in theaters. The global opening looks better than domestic, $155M-$165M global to a $70M+ in U.S./Canada.

Patrick Frater Asia Bureau Chief “Transformers: Rise of the Beasts” enjoyed a $38.9 million (RMB276 million) opening weekend in mainland China. The score was comfortably the biggest by any film between Friday and Sunday and the second biggest opening by a Hollywood film this year in the territory. Data from consultancy firm Artisan Gateway suggests that the film accounted for some 63% of China’s nationwide gross box office over the weekend. Giant screen systems provider, Imax reported that the film earned $5.9 million of the total from its screen network in China, or some 15% of the China total.

“Transformers: Rise of the Beasts” stormed into theatres worldwide this weekend, amassing a staggering $110 million at the international box office. 

Rebecca Rubin Film and Media Reporter After less than two weeks of release, “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” has surpassed the entire box office run of its predecessor, 2018’s Oscar-winning “Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse.” Over the weekend, the comic book sequel hit $226 million in North America and $390 million globally. It now stands as Sony’s highest-grossing animated release in history. The original film, also a box office winner, tapped out with $190 in North America and $384 million globally. Despite competition from Paramount’s “Transformers: Rise of the Beasts,” which opened to $60 million and targets a similar audience of younger males, “Spider-Verse” added $55 million in its second weekend of release, a decline of $55% from its huge $120 million debut.

Rebecca Rubin Film and Media Reporter “Transformers: Rise of the Beasts” kicked off at the international box office with $110 million from 68 markets, including a decent $40 million start in China. The seventh installment in Paramount’s action franchise also pulled in $60 million in its North American debut, bringing its worldwide tally to a solid $170 million. Overseas audiences will be key to the theatrical success of “Transformers,” which cost $200 million. Prior entries in the 16-year-old series have earned as much as 70% of overall box office returns outside of the U.S. and Canada. At the international box office, ticket sales for “Rise of the Beasts” are pacing 32% below “Bumblebee,” which is the most recent entry in the series. The newest chapter has managed to set franchise records in eight smaller markets, including Indonesia, Argentina and Peru. The Autobots will take the box office milestones where they can get them.

Paramount/Skydance/Hasbro’s Transformers: Rise of the Beasts is on the prowl overseas with $43.3M through Friday in 68 markets. This portends a $100M+ international box office debut, in line with projections. The domestic three-day is looking at $60M.

Indiana Jones And The Dial Of Destiny is predicted to earn a disappointing $60million at the US box office in its opening weekend.As reported by Deadline, box office analysts are predicting the fifth and final film in the franchise will take between $60 million to $70 million over a five-day holiday opening. While those sort of numbers would be reason to celebrate for most movies, Harrison Ford’s last outing as the archaeologist action hero was expected to be a big hitter for Disney and Lucasfilm.The Dial Of Destiny‘s 3-day opening is down from the $100.1million opening for Indiana Jones And The Kingdom Of The Crystal Skull, which is widely considering to be the worst film in the franchise.It’s unclear why The Dial Of Destiny is projected to underperform at the box office, but it could be related to the mediocre reviews that followed the film’s premiere at Cannes last month.

The first round of box office projections for Disney/Lucasfilm’s “Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny” have arrived, and they are predicting a significant drop from the film’s 2008 predecessor “Kingdom of the Crystal Skull” with an opening weekend of around $60 million. By comparison, “Crystal Skull,” which opened on the Thursday before Memorial Day 15 years ago, earned a Fri.-Sun.

In the wake of world premiering in Cannes to lackluster film reviews at 50% Rotten, Disney/Lucasfilm’s Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny is currently looking at a $60M+ domestic opening.

Patrick Frater Asia Bureau Chief After a few pandemic-addled years, the global box office is finally ready to feel the warmth of the studios’ tentpole releases. Though the swing-back to pre-pandemic release schedules is happening at different speeds in each market, the quartet of “Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3,” “Fast X,” “The Little Mermaid” and “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” — not to mention “The Super Mario Bros Movie” before them — have announced the arrival of Hollywood’s version of summer across much of the planet. France saw admissions climb by 33% in the first five months of 2023, compared with the equivalent period last year, according to data from the CNC (National Film Board). Compared with an average figure for 2017 to 2019, the performance of the 2023 box office is (only) 12% behind. France’s recovery has been powered by a string of successful local films including “Asterix and Obelix: The Middle Kingdom,” “Alibi.com 2,” “The Three Musketeers: D’Artagnan,” “The Crime Is Mine” and Cannes opener “Jeanne du Barry.”

Patrick Frater Asia Bureau Chief “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” grabbed top place at the mainland China box office over the weekend with an opening $17.2 million (RMB122 million) score. Giant screen company, Imax reports that $2.7 million, or more than 16% of the film’s China total, came from its Middle Kingdom venues. Chinese online ticketing agency Maoyan forecasts that “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” will earn a total of RMB241 million or $34 million at current exchange rates. “Fast X,” which had driven off with the spoils for the past two weekends, was overtaken on its third lap and achieved $7.7 million in second place, according to data from consultancy firm Artisan Gateway. After 17 days in Chinese cinemas, “Fast X” has accumulated $124 million, making it the highest-grossing imported titled released this year in China ahead of Japanese animation “Suzume.”

Rotten Tomatoes. There’s a good chance that “Little Mermaid” can keep legging out even against Sony’s “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” and Paramount’s “Transformers: Rise of the Beasts” given the female-majority audience doesn’t have significant overlap with those films.

Patrick Frater Asia Bureau Chief “Fast X” predictably won a second weekend on top of the mainland China box office, driving its total past the $100 million mark. But the disappointing start for Disney’s live-action “The Little Mermaid” was the bigger talking point. “Fast X” earned $17.6 million in China according to data from consultancy Artisan Gateway. That was a 66% drop compared with its opening weekend, but still gave the film a $110 million cumulative after 12 days and has caused estimates to be further revised upwards. Ticketing agency Maoyan is now forecasting that the film will finish with RMB880 million ($126 million), having previously predicted RMB728 million ($104 million), and then RMB840 million.

A24’s Julia Louis-Dreyfus-starrer You Hurt My Feelings will top an estimated $1.7 million in limited nationwide release for the four-day holiday weekend, at the high end of expectations on 912 screens. That puts it at no. 8 at a domestic box office where Little Mermaid is making all the waves.

Refresh for latest…: Apart from big new opener The Little Mermaid, which we detailed here, this weekend was notable for propelling Universal’s Fast X past the $500M mark globally, and Disney/Marvel’s Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 to over $730M worldwide.