Broadway Box Office Starting To Look Like Christmas: Grosses Up 10% To $37M

China’s box office in 2022 dropped 36% versus 2021, reaching approximately RMB 30B ($4.35B). According to China.org, citing figures from the China Film Administration, 85% of the 2022 revenue was generated by local movies, led by The Battle at Lake Changjin II with RMB 4.07B ($636M at historical rates, per comScore). This past weekend, James Cameron’s Avatar: The Way of Water became the highest-grossing studio import of the year, overtaking Jurassic World Dominion with an estimated $152.8M through Sunday.

SUNDAY AM, NEW YEAR’S DAY: Refresh for more analysis and chart While New Year’s Eve is typically a better moviegoing day than Christmas Eve, business was still down yesterday at -27% from Friday for all movies. That’s a similar decline to last weekend’s Friday-to-Christmas Eve (-26%), however New Year’s Eve made more than Christmas Eve, $27.9M to $22.2M. Moviegoing is expected to be +19% on New Year’s Day, and there will be an extra cushion in Monday, Jan. 2 as many typically have off in honor of the Sunday holiday. Per our sources, weather wasn’t an issue this weekend.

When it was originally announced, Damien Chazelle’s “Babylon” seemed like a no-brainer, Oscar favorite. An epic tale of Old Hollywood, written and directed by the filmmaker behind “Whiplash,” “La La Land,” and “First Man.” That’s such an easy sell.

Any cynicism about a broken down Christmas box office, impacted by weather, was wiped away Tuesday as 20th Century Studios/Disney/Lightstorm’s Avatar: The Way of Water racked up $23.8M sending its domestic cume to $317.1M. In addition, the sequel flew past the $1 billion mark at the worldwide box office. Director James Cameron has told the media that the breakeven point for Avatar: The Way of Water stands at $2 billion global mark.

The aftermath of Covid’s 2020-21 closure of cinemas will continue to be felt in 2023 as the domestic box office claws its way back to what many sources believe is an $8 billion-$9 billion result.

Never bet against James Cameron, they said. And while “Avatar: The Way Of Water” got off to somewhat of a slow box office start—or at least it fell under some of the early projections which made pundits quickly skeptical of its chances—the Cameron maxim seems to be coming true.

When it was originally announced, Damien Chazelle’s “Babylon” seemed like a no-brainer, Oscar favorite. An epic tale of Old Hollywood, written and directed by the filmmaker behind “Whiplash,” “La La Land,” and “First Man.” That’s such an easy sell.

Damien Chazelle’s$80M 1920s-set Hollywood epic Babylon went up in a blaze of fire at the domestic box office this past weekend with an awful $5.3M 4-day start.

Coming out of its second weekend, James Cameron’s Avatar: The Way of Water has banked an estimated $855.4M globally through Sunday. The sophomore session added $168.6M at the international box office in 52 markets for a $601.7M running cume.

While theaters are still recovering from the pandemic directly impacting attendance and box office outcomes, there are still really great movies struggling to find audiences outside of streaming and VOD options when they are released in theaters. Some smaller to mid-range pictures, mainly horror, have done better than expected in the shadow of the $100-200 million-dollar budgeted blockbusters that seemingly come out round-year now.

We’re hearing that bad weather in the Midwest significantly impacted Thursday grosses with Winter Storm Elliott intensifying into a bomb cyclone. As of this morning, more than 1 million customers are without power across the country, around 4K flights canceled and wind chill in the -20 to -30 degree range as the country gets hammered by severe winter conditions.

Indonesian movies had racked up close to 55 million admissions in their home market as of December 18, according to local box office analyst Bicara Box Office, overtaking the previous record of 51.9 million admissions set in the pre-pandemic year of 2019. 

With strong and consistent mid-weeks, James Cameron’s Avatar: The Way of Water has crested the $600M mark worldwide. This comes after it rapidly passed $500M global earlier this week, following its $441.6M opening weekend. The current worldwide total through Wednesday is $609.7M including $426.8M from the international box office.

20th Century Studios/Disney’s Avatar: The Way of Water made $14.3M yesterday at 4,202 theaters, ranking it as the second best Wednesday of 2022 after Top Gun: Maverick‘s $14.8M on June 1. Avatar 2‘s first Wednesday also outstripped that of Minions: Rise of Gru ($13.5M, July 6) and Black Panther: Wakanda Forever’s first and second Wednesdays($8.1M Nov 16 and $10M on Nov. 23).

The Alamo Drafthouse movie chain looks set to hit $350,000 in ticket sales this November and December from Jon Favreau’s Will Ferrell-starring holiday favorite Elf. The 2003 comedy, about a human baby raised in Santa’s North Pole workshop who returns to New York and saves Christmas, is the chain’s top all-time repertory title, with cumulative grosses passing $1.5 million as fans flock to its movie watch-parties with costumed hosts, props, present wrapping and spaghetti-with-maple-syrup eating contests — Buddy the Elf’s favorite food. The chain ordered 30,000 elf hats this year.

Funny Girl broke a house record with more than $2 million in receipts at the August Wilson Theatre, A Beautiful Noise continued its $1 million-plus weekly take, and The Piano Lesson topped the list of highest-grossing non-musical productions with $914,752, each contributing to Broadway’s $37M box office tally for the week ending Dec. 18.

Christmas weekend is definitely Avatar: The Way of Water‘s to win at the box office, however, how big or small that is remains the question especially this early in the week. At the bare minimum, the 20th Century Studios/Disney movie should secure $60M-$65M for the 3-day and $90M-$95M for the 4-day. That’s on par with Rogue One: A Star Wars Story which played into its second weekend in a year when Christmas fell on a Sunday. Avatar 2 made $16M yesterday, with a Sunday to Monday decline at -56% which was similar to Rogue One‘s -54%. Rogue One‘s first Monday was $17.5M. Some rivals won’t be surprised if Avatar 2 touches $100M over its four-day run. Through four days, Avatar 2 counts just over $150M.